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Long-term ERP time series as indicators for global climate variability and climate change (ERP-CLIVAR)

In our project we study whether variations in Earth rotation parameters (ERPs) such as length-of day (LOD) and polar motion (PM) can be used as climate indicators. On interannual time scales the coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects variations in LOD and PM differently in amplitude and magnitude. Considering the different effects of atmosphere and ocean on LOD and PM, analyses focus on relations between LOD - atmosphere and PM – ocean. Corresponding analyses on ERPs are performed using reanalysis data and the ocean model OMCT to obtain atmosphere and ocean related parameters related to rotational variations of the Earth. Concerted results from these analyses possibly lead to a classification of ENSO-LOD and ENSO-PM relations characterized by specific anomalies in the atmosphere (climate indices, mean sea level pressure) and parameters effecting the ocean surface (ocean sea surface temperatures).
Corresponding analyses are conducted on modelled ERPs such as the relative angular momentum (AAM) and ocean angular momentum (OAM) using ERA40 reanalysis, the ocean model OMCT, and the coupled ocean-atmospheric model ECHAM5-OM1 to obtain Earth rotation parameters undisturbed by core-mantle activities, and to study Earth rotational variations under climate variability and change.
Results obtained by this first project phase (2006-2009) will be joint by further analyses of project phase 2 (2009-2012) exploring the relevance of variations in ERPs as indicator for specific variations in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Analyses will shift from effects of subtropical atmospheric anomalies prominently related to LOD variations to extratropical effects. Consequently, the more prominent influence of the ocean will be assessed in terms of combined variations in LOD and PM to identify joint modes of ERPs.

Project proposal: Not barrier-free file. Download (pdf/195 KB)

Poject 1st phase: September 2006 - August 2009

Involved institutions:

Scientists / Staff:

  • Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich, Institut für Meteorologie IfM,
    Tel. +49 30 838 71186, Fax +49 30 838 71128, E-Mail: uwe.ulbrich (at) met.fu-berlin.de
  • Dr. Gregor Leckebusch, Institut für Meteorologie IfM,
    Tel. +49 30 838 71107, E-Mail: gcl (at) met.fu-berlin.de
  • Dr. Peter Névir, Institut für Meteorologie IfM,
    Tel. +49 30 838 71138, E-Mail: peter.nevir (at) met.fu-berlin.de
  • Prof. Dr. Maik Thomas, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam GFZ,
    Tel.: +49 331 288 1147, E-Mail: mthomas (at) gfz-potsdam.de
  • Nana Schön, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam GFZ,
    Tel.: +49 331 288 1153, E-Mail: nana (at) gfz-potsdam.de

Former staff:

  • Christina Endler, Institut für Meteorologie IfM,
    Tel. +49 30 838 71143, E-Mail: christina.endler (at) met.fu-berlin.de
  • Andre Grötzsch, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam GFZ,
    Tel.: +49 331 288 1770, E-Mail: groetzsch (at) gfz-potsdam.de
  • Felicitas Hansen, Institut für Meteorologie IfM,
    E-Mail: felicitas.hansen (at) met.fu-berlin.de
  • Elfrun Lehmann, Institut für Meteorologie IfM,
    Tel. +49 30 838 71154, E-Mail: elfrun.lehmann (at) met.fu-berlin.de

Press information

  • April 21, 2009 - Discovery News reports on P10 research
    Discovery News reports on P10 research related to a recent EGU presentation by Elfrun Lehmann, Felicitas Hansen and co-authors (session G3 "Observing and understanding Earth rotation variability and its geophysical excitation"). The authors reported on an increase in length-of-day variations under climate warming. They link longer days to a more frequent emerge of strong El Niño events and increasing stratospheric jets towards the end of the 21st century.
    more ...

Activities and current information:

Publications and Presentations:

2009

  • Lehmann E., Hansen F., Ulbrich U., Névir P., Leckebusch G.C., Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, EGU2009-10520-1.2009, oral presentation, EGU General Assembly 2009.
    Not barrier-free file. Abstract (pdf/113 KB) and Not barrier-free file. Slides (pdf/1512 KB)
  • Lehmann E., Götzsch A., Ulbrich U., Leckbusch G.C., Névir P., Thomas M., Long-term ERP time series as indicators for global climate variability and climate change, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, EGU2009-9084-1.2009, EGU General Assembly 2009. Not barrier-free file. Abstract (pdf/112 KB) and Not barrier-free file. Poster (pdf/477 KB)

2008

  • Lehmann E.,P. Névir G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich: The influence of zonal winds on the ENSO-LOD relation on interannual time scales, oral presentation, Geodätische Woche, Bremen, 30.09. - 02.10.2008. Not barrier-free file. Slides (pdf/1834 KB)
  • Lehmann, E.; Leckebusch, G.C.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.: Effects of ENSO on sub-seasonal to interannual length-of-day (LOD) variability. Oral presentation, EGU Vienna, April 13.-18., 2008. Not barrier-free file. Abstract (pdf/7 KB)
  • A. Grötzsch: Statistische Analyse des Zusammenhangs von klimarelevanten Parametern und ozeanisch verursachten Erdrotationsschwankungen - Beobachtungen vs. Simulationen. Oral presentation, Statusseminar DFG Forschergruppe FOR 584 “Erdrotation und globale dynamische Prozesse”, Wettzell, 12. – 14.03.2008.
  • E. Lehmann: Der Einfluss von ENSO auf saisonale und interannuale Variationen der Tageslänge. Oral presentation, Statusseminar DFG Forschergruppe FOR 584 “Erdrotation und globale dynamische Prozesse”, Wettzell, 12. – 14.03.2008.

2007

  • A. Grötzsch: Earth rotation variations – an index for climate anomalies and climate change. Poster presentation, GFZ-Doktorandentag, 1. November 2007.
    Not barrier-free file. Poster (pdf/849 KB)
  • Thomas, M.: Atmosphärisch-hydrosphärische Modellsimulationen zur Prozessierung und Interpretation geodätischer Monitoring-Daten. Meteorologisches Kolloquium, FB Geowissenschaften, Freie Universität Berlin, 29 October 2007.
  • A. Grötzsch: Analyse von Signaturen in simulierten Verteilungen regionaler Beiträge zu den effektiven Drehimpulsfunktionen bei ENSO-Ereignissen. Oral presentation, Geodetic Week Leipzig, 25. – 27.09.2007. Not barrier-free file. Slides (pdf/609 KB)
  • E. Lehmann, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, P. Nevir: Ocean-Atmosphere Effects on Interannual Length-of-Day (LOD) Variations. Poster presentation, Geodetic Week, September 2007, Leipzig. Not barrier-free file. Poster (pdf/344 KB)
  • Dobslaw, H., Thomas, M., Grötzsch, H.: Numerical models of transient atmospheric and hydrospheric dynamics: benefits for the interpretation of geodetic observations. IUGG XXIV 2007, General Assembly Perugia, Italy, 4 July 2007.
  • Lehmann, E., Chr. Endler, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, P. Nevir: LOD - An independent indicator for climate variability & change? Poster presentation, EGU, April 2007, Wien. Not barrier-free file. Poster (vnd.ms-powerpoint/3913 KB)
  • A. Grötzsch: Über Signaturen von ENSO-Ereignissen in simulierten ozeanischen Drehimpulsverteilungen. Oral presentation, Statusseminar DFG Forschergruppe FOR 584 “Erdrotation und globale dynamische Prozesse”, Dresden, 30. – 31.05.2007.
  • E. Lehmann: LOD - Ein unabhängiger Indikator für Klimavariabilität und -wandel? Oral presentation, Statusseminar DFG Forschergruppe FOR 584 “Erdrotation und globale dynamische Prozesse”, Dresden, 30. – 31.05.2007.
  • E. Lehmann, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, P. Nevir:: Ein Vergleich der Reanalysen NCEP-1 und ERA-40: Zonaler Wind und atmosphärischer Drehimpuls. Oral presentation, Statusseminar DFG Forschergruppe FOR 584 “Erdrotation und globale dynamische Prozesse”, Dresden, 30. – 31.05.2007.

2006

  • Endler, C., G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, P. Nevir, E. Lehmann: Relationship between interannual variations in the lengths of day (LOD) and ENSO. Posterpresentation, Geodetic Week, Munich, October 10 - 12 2006.
    Not barrier-free file. Poster (vnd.ms-powerpoint/3425 KB)

Theses:

  • Hansen Felicitas, 2008: El Nino Telekonnexionen und Klimaänderung unter Berücksichtigung des atmosphärischen Drehimpulses. Bachelor thesis, Dept. of Geosciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin.
  • Endler, Christina, 2007: Untersuchung zu Variationen der Tageslänge (LOD) und ihrer Beziehung zu ENSO auf der interannualen Skala. Diploma thesis, Dept. of Geosciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin.

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Modification date: 10 Dec 2009